arial of a large field full of solar panels

Green grid goal is practical for New Jersey, Princeton's 詹金斯 tells lawmakers

2022年3月23日11:21 a.m.

在新泽西州西温莎的jdb电子官方网站湖校区开发的太阳能场的无人机视图.

新泽西州在2050年为居民提供电力而不产生碳污染的目标是可以实现和负担得起的, but may involve significant use of out-of-state power, jdb电子游戏教授杰西·詹金斯 告诉一个州立法委员会 周一.

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杰西·詹金斯, 他是机械和航空航天工程以及安德林格能源与环境中心的助理教授, jdb电子官方网站ZERO实验室的负责人, the Zero carbon Energy systems 研究 and Optimization Laboratory, which conducts research to improve decision-making to accelerate rapid, affordable and effective transitions to net-zero carbon energy systems.

詹金斯, 机械和航空航天工程的助理教授,Andlinger能源和环境中心, 领导一组研究人员 建模途径 以满足新泽西州的既定政策目标,即到2050年提供75%的可再生能源,并实现100%的无碳电力供应. 上周一,他描述了实现这一目标的选项,该目标是奥巴马政府2018年发布的一项行政命令中概述的. Phil Murphy to members of the New Jersey Senate Environment and Energy Committee.

“The goal of this study is to provide an independent, detailed assessment of key technology and policy options and choices, and their implications as we chart the path to 100% clean electricity,詹金斯说.

詹金斯在jdb电子官方网站ZERO实验室的能源研究人员团队模拟了该州的三种大致情况,并发现了不同的结果:

  • A business-as-usual scenario based on policies in place at the end of 2020, which excludes the goal of a carbon-free electricity supply by 2050. 在这种情况下, 电力供应成本将下降19%,但无碳电力供应将无法实现.
  • 基于已承诺但尚未实施的政策对结果建模的场景, including the goals of 75% renewable electricity and 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050, along with the state’s existing goal to curb greenhouse gases statewide by 80% by that time. 研究发现,实现这些目标最经济实惠的方式是新泽西州从州外购买大量清洁能源.
  • 新泽西州主要通过在州内建设清洁能源资源来实现电网脱碳, such as development of offshore wind farms and solar projects. The outcome of this scenario would allow the state to meets its goals, but it would be more expensive for New Jersey power customers.

研究结果表明,在本世纪中叶实现新泽西州实现无碳电力供应的目标是可能的, 尽管由于快速的建筑和汽车电气化,预计电力需求峰值将增长85%.

“首先,也是最重要的, 向100%无碳电力过渡是可行的,同时保持必要的可靠性,并降低大量电力供应成本,詹金斯说.

詹金斯告诉立法者,成本最低的选择将利用新泽西州在一个名为PJM互连的多州电网中的成员资格. 网格, made up of numerous utilities and power producers, 贯穿宾夕法尼亚州, New Jersey and Maryland (the original “P, J和M”)到北卡罗来纳州, 以及远至西部肯塔基州的部分地区, 密歇根, 印第安纳州和伊利诺伊州. 在最便宜的选择下, 新泽西州将通过从土地成本较低、可再生资源质量更好的州进口太阳能和风能来节省资金, such as solar power from North Carolina or wind power from Indiana. This strategy represents the cheapest path for the state, provided other states do not similarly aggressively decarbonize their power sectors. 这样的话, 该地区对可再生能源的更大需求将推高新泽西州的进口成本, prompting reliance on more expensive in-state resources.

增加电力进口的选择也将扭转新泽西州对州内能源的传统依赖. 目前仅为状态 进口约10% 它的力量. 在最低成本的选择下, that would increase to about 65% by 2050, 徐庆宇说, the lead researcher on the study and a postdoctoral research scholar in 詹金斯’ ZERO lab, 谁通过电子邮件补充了他的评论.

If New Jersey chose to generate more power in state, 它可以扩大海上风能和小规模分布式太阳能装置等项目的规模, which are state priorities under current policies. But Xu noted that would involve more cost for the state’s ratepayers.

“jdb电子游戏发现,通往无碳电力供应的最低成本途径在许多重要方面与新泽西州目前的政策方法不符, which prioritizes in-state and distributed energy resources,詹金斯说.

更便宜的选择 包括让该州的三个商业核反应堆在2030年后继续开放,并大规模部署, “utility-scale” solar projects that deliver lower prices due to economies of scale. 如果该地区其他国家追求脱碳目标,现有的核电站还可以对冲进口可再生电力的更高成本, or if natural gas prices or renewable energy construction costs are higher than expected.

詹金斯说,政策制定者需要评估不同电力来源方式的利弊,因为它们的影响远远超出了电力供应成本,还包括对经济和劳动力的影响, 环境, 和生活质量.

Although not favored by 环境alists and difficult to site, building natural gas plants was a strategy identified as useful in all scenarios. While new gas plants raise important concerns about pollution and additional greenhouse gases, 詹金斯解释说,增加发电能力将降低电力成本,有助于满足电动汽车日益增长的高峰需求,并采用电动热泵来有效地加热水和建筑物. 詹金斯 said total generation from natural gas and associated air pollution, 温室气体排放, and impacts associated with gas extraction would steadily fall over time, especially if the state’s existing nuclear plants are maintained. In the two scenarios developed to meet decarbonization goals, the plants would need to run on zero-carbon fuels, such as sustainably-produced hydrogen or ammonia by 2050, at which point they would operate only when wind and solar power are both largely unavailable.

Lawmakers said affordability is important, and that they would have to weigh it against the idea of importing more electricity. They asked 詹金斯 about making EV charging infrastructure more accessible, to which he replied that additional public investments in charging infrastructure are important, as an earlier resolution in the committee meeting proposed.

听证会结束后,麦凯恩说. 鲍勃·史密斯, 委员会主席, said he would take 詹金斯 up on his offer to model other scenarios and talk further.

“jdb电子游戏会把你设为快速拨号,史密斯说, who represents parts of Somerset and Middle性 counties.

For more information on the new research, download "新泽西州通往100%无碳电力供应的途径:到2050年的政策和技术选择."

The new study was published as a working paper for public dissemination prior to peer review. The research team is preparing additional publications based on this report for peer review, 可能会修订.

《jdb电子官方网站》的其他作者包括前jdb电子游戏博士后研究员张川, now an assistant professor at Peking University, and associate research scholar Neha Patankar at Princeton.

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